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Munich share forecast: with physics theory for a super return

The founders of Münchener Aktienprognose GmbH combine methods from quantum optics and nanophysics with swarm intelligence to forecast share prices. Individual depots increased by many thousands of percent in the past year.

Use swarm intelligence to forecast stocks.

Photo: Informatica

Stock trading controlled by algorithms is controversial (see also article above). All the more doubts are needed if miracle algorithms are to lead private investors dead certain to millions of dollars. It is unclear why the providers of such magic formulas need to sell software to end users.

But that is exactly what the founders of Münchener Aktienprognose GmbH want to do. However, they rely less on magic than on transparency. Hundreds of virtual depots, whose owners use their forecasts, can be viewed on the website, including the last 50 trades. Of these deposits, 70% are in the plus compared to the course of the Dax. Front runner: the "Monsterdepot" from user Ludwig, the value of which has risen from € 1000 in July 2011 to over € 134,500. On average, the owners of those 394 depots that are over 90 days old can look forward to an increase in value of 52%.

Munich share forecast: Rational buying and selling decisions through swarm intelligence

The winnings are still purely virtual. And trading fees are not included, especially with successful portfolios, with others, the users have sometimes set unrealistically high fees. In this way, the founders collect empirical values ​​and receive benchmarks that are effective for the public. Behind the scenes, they work - supported by an Exist start-up grant - to optimize their forecasting algorithms and expand their data base. In the medium term, their offer should enable private investors to make more rational buying and selling decisions. To do this, they rely on the one hand on their concentrated know-how and on the other hand on the swarm intelligence of the users. They are invited to share information and make forecasts. In the background, the software weights the input of the participant investors based on their respective success rate - and includes the weighted information in the forecasts. The larger the swarm of investors, the more well-founded the forecasts become.

But the intelligence of the masses is only an instrument. The founding quartet has much more up its sleeve. Tassilo Keilmann received his PhD in 2009 at the Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics on strongly correlated atoms. Karl Gerd Vollbrecht, who also has a doctorate in physics, is a specialist in quantum algorithms. Ludwig Ohl has specialized in theoretical nanophysics. And the fourth in the group, Falk von Wildenradt, is an economist with a focus on financial markets and securities trading. What they all have in common is a scientific interest in the mechanics of financial markets - and a desire to use analytical and statistical methods of theoretical physics for modeling trade movements and price developments.

Premium access costs € 49 per month

“Basically, we transfer laws from spectral analyzes and correlation evaluations in the field of quantum optics to market frequencies,” Ohl summarizes her approach. You can't look much deeper into the cards (see box).

The founders offer premium access for € 49 per month, for which the user can create up to 50 portfolios and process an unlimited number of trades. You get price developments and forecasts in real time, including historical price developments and price analyzes going back three years, and you can look up to three years into the future. "Of course, the quality of the forecast decreases with such long-term forecasts," explains von Wildenradt. For users of the free offer, the forecast quality is limited in any case in view of the heavily thinned out database. In addition, you are allowed a maximum of 15 trading movements per day with only one securities account.

Munich share forecast: In the future, investors should be able to participate in real share trading

In the future, private investors should also be able to participate in real stock trading via their platform. "We are holding talks with cooperation partners from the financial sector," reports Ohl. As a parallel sales channel, they have in mind to market their forecasting know-how B2B. Talks are already underway here with smaller hedge funds. The exact business direction is not yet 100% clear. A conceivable approach: free B2C offers to tap into the intelligence of the largest possible swarm and to market the well-founded B2B forecast data.

In order to make real profits now, users would have to carry out their virtual trades manually with a corresponding loss of time in real trading.

Of course, even the young stock forecasters have to put up with the question of why they don't just buy stocks with their algorithms and get rich. “You first have to have money for that,” they smile. And their forecasting tool is not finished yet. “But we definitely want to invest real money in the future, for example in funds that act on the basis of our forecasts,” said Ohl.

 

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